6:5 blackjack vs 3:2: what the payout costs

A natural blackjack traditionally pays 3:2, meaning a $10 bet wins $15. Tables marked 6:5 pay $12 on the same hand. That $3 shortfall on about one hand in 21 raises the house edge by roughly 1.36 to 1.39 percentage points, more than every other common rule variation put together, and it is the single most important line to read on any blackjack felt.

The payout arithmetic

Both payouts describe profit relative to stake; the stake itself comes back on any win. Blackjack is the only ordinary hand that pays a premium, and a player natural tied by a dealer natural pushes under either rule.

The shortfall is always 0.3 units: 1.5 − 1.2 = 0.3 of the stake on every winning natural. At 6:5 the payout only divides evenly on stakes that are multiples of $5, so on other amounts check how the table handles the odd change before you bet.

From 0.3 units to 1.36% of every bet

The cost in house edge is the shortfall multiplied by how often you are paid a natural. Here is the exact six-deck arithmetic.

A six-deck shoe has 312 cards: 24 aces and 96 ten-value cards. The probability of being dealt a two-card natural is the chance of ace then ten plus ten then ace:

2 × (24/312) × (96/311) = 4,608 / 97,032 = 4.749%

A natural is only paid when the dealer does not also have one. Given the player holds an ace and a ten, the dealer’s chance of a natural from the remaining 310 cards (23 aces, 95 tens) is:

2 × (23/310) × (95/309) = 4,370 / 95,790 = 4.562%

So the probability of a winning, untied natural is 4.749% × (1 − 0.04562) = 4.532%. Multiply by the 0.3 units lost on each one:

0.3 × 4.532% = 1.360 percentage points of house edge

That matches BlackjackInfo’s figure of 1.36% for six decks. The same calculation in a single deck (16 tens, 4 aces among 52 cards) gives a natural 4.827% of the time, a dealer natural alongside it 3.673% of the time, a winning natural 4.649% of the time, and a cost of 0.3 × 4.649% = 1.395 points, which is the 1.39% Wizard of Odds reports. Fewer decks mean slightly more naturals, so 6:5 costs slightly more in the very games that advertise it.

Why 6:5 dwarfs every other rule

Set the cost beside the other rules catalogued in how rule variations change the house edge, all from Wizard of Odds:

Add every player-unfriendly rule in the middle of that table together (H17, no DAS, double 10–11 only, no resplit) and you reach +0.64 points, still less than half the damage of 6:5. Add the best things a casino can offer (single deck, late surrender) and you recover 0.55 points, not enough to offset it either. A single-deck 6:5 game with otherwise good rules is a worse bet than a plain eight-deck 3:2 game by roughly 0.9 points, which is why Wizard of Odds has called single-deck 6:5 the worst blackjack game in Las Vegas.

Wizard of Odds’ reader correspondence gives real examples. One single-deck game with a 0.05% house edge at 3:2 became 1.44% at 6:5; another with downtown rules went from 0.19% to 1.58%. BlackjackInfo’s example contrasts a Strip casino’s single-deck 6:5 game at 1.45% against its eight-deck 3:2 game at 0.56%: for a $25 player at 80 hands an hour, expected loss of $29.00 per hour versus $11.20.

The reason is simply frequency. A player gets a blackjack about once every 21 hands regardless of skill. There is no strategy adjustment that reduces exposure to the rule, because the hand that triggers it is the one hand you cannot play differently.

Spotting it on the placard and felt

Casinos are required to state the payout, but they are not required to make it prominent. Check three places:

1. The felt arc. The printed line above the betting circles reads “Blackjack pays 3 to 2” or “Blackjack pays 6 to 5”. Some felts print “21 pays 6 to 5” and drop the word blackjack.
2. The rule placard. A small card or digital display at the dealer’s left lists limits and rules. The payout may appear only here if the felt is generic.
3. The marketing. Large “Single Deck” or “Double Deck” signage, party-pit tables with dancers, low minimums in prime locations, and tables inside otherwise premium pits are all common homes for 6:5. Wizard of Odds estimates about 10% of Las Vegas 21 tables pay less than 3:2, with most of those at 6:5 and a few at 7:5 or even money.

If nothing is printed, ask the dealer “does blackjack pay three to two?” before placing a bet. The choosing a table guide puts this question first, ahead of the soft-17 rule and deck count, for exactly the reasons above.

What to do when 6:5 is the only game

Basic strategy does not change at a 6:5 table: hit, stand, double and split decisions are about expected value against the dealer’s upcard, and the natural payout does not enter any of them. The insurance decision also stays the same; even money, which is insurance in disguise, is still a poor bet and under 6:5 is usually not even offered.

What changes is whether to play at all. A 1.4-point increase on a $10 average bet at 80 hands an hour is about $11 an hour of extra expected loss, every hour. A 3:2 table with a higher minimum can be cheaper in expectation than a 6:5 table with a lower one; a $15 bet at 0.5% (about $6 an hour) costs less than a $10 bet at 2% (about $16 an hour). Wherever a 3:2 game exists in the same building, play it.

Online and social games vary too. Blackjack World Tour is a free iOS blackjack game played with virtual chips; it is a social casino with in-app purchases and no real-money gambling. Live casino play is real money, and the payout line is where that money leaks fastest.

Related reading

• How rule variations change the house edge
• Deck count: single vs multi-deck
• Choosing a blackjack table
• Probability of blackjack